Estratégias de opções binárias Comerciantes intermediários Para comerciantes intermediários, as estratégias de negociação introduzidas são ligeiramente mais complexas. Basicamente, a maioria deles cobre a área de gerenciamento de riscos. Essas estratégias são orientadas para o prolongamento de uma capital de investimento dos comerciantes que ele continua a ficar o suficiente para ganhar. Comerciantes avançados Para entender completamente as várias estratégias discutidas aqui, é preciso um entendimento sólido sobre os vários conceitos comerciais usados nessas estratégias de negociação. Os comerciantes que não têm uma base sólida em como as opções funcionam terão dificuldade em compreender como funcionam essas estratégias. Como tal, recomendamos apenas comerciantes de nível avançado para adotar as estratégias mencionadas aqui. Bônus de corretores recomendados até 100 - termos e condições aplicáveis. Os investidores podem perder todo o seu capital. Opções de Revisão da VisitaBinary Aprenda como trocar opções binárias. As opções binárias existem há algum tempo, mas recentemente (desde 2008) foram um sucesso entre os novos comerciantes. Eles foram originalmente introduzidos como Opções Digitais e, basicamente, os valores binários 2 e, no caso das finanças, significam para cima e para baixo. Esta série será dedicada a ensinar a logística das Opções Binárias de Negociação, os in8217s e out8217s, juntamente com várias Estratégias de Negociação de Opções Binárias. Uma vez que as Opções Binárias são derivadas (dependem dos ativos subjacentes), as lições aqui descritas podem se sobrepor a outras séries. Especialmente o caso do Forex, pois esse é o mercado no qual focalizo minha atenção porque acho mais fácil usar o Forex como o ativo subjacente para a negociação de opções binárias em comparação com outros mercados. Assim, as lições aqui lhe darão a capacidade de trocar opções binárias Forex. Não é um gênio para perceber o quão falha a indústria de opções binárias hoje em dia. Os comerciantes da Internet destruíram os mercados inundando-o com informações e produtos enganosos. Fazer uma pesquisa simples no Youtube ou no Google renderá 1008217 de fraudes de opções binárias. Eu não poderia ficar de pé e assistir, como mais e mais comerciantes estavam sendo enganados em uma base diária. Então, eu fiz uma série de opções de opções binárias de vídeos educacionais aqui na Financial Trading School para ajudar comerciantes novos e antigos. Como você logo perceberá depois de assistir meus vídeos, eu não deveria estar aqui para te mostrar ou perder seu tempo. No entanto, ao mesmo tempo, I8217m não está aqui para segurar sua mão, trocar opções binárias é uma tarefa difícil e não é adequado para todos. Todos os vídeos que I8217ve fornecidos são gratuitos e são carregados no Youtube, para que você possa vê-los em seu lazer a qualquer hora e em qualquer lugar que desejar. Todas as lições são ensinadas do ponto de vista neutro, o que você faz com a informação depende de você. Este é o lugar onde o trabalho duro entra, você espera que ele coloque o esforço para descobrir. Contudo, estou preocupado demais. Proporciono muitos exemplos de gráficos para ilustrar a teoria. Abaixo de você8217 encontre o índice completo de todas as minhas aulas nas séries de Opções Binárias (BO). Basta clicar no código do curso para assistir as lições, também, tome nota dos pré e co-requisitos. Espero que os vídeos o ajudem enquanto se aventura no mundo das opções binárias. PS: algumas das lições foram tiradas da minha série de Opções Binárias originais do Comércio do Financial Trading Journal, para que você possa ver alguma sobreposição no conteúdo. Opções binárias Série 100 Como na universidade, os cursos de introdução abrangem tópicos amplos dentro de uma disciplina e que exatamente o que é a série 100 da opção binária. Dentro da série 100, você aprende sobre o básico de opções binárias, logística de como as coisas funcionam, mecânica de negociação e estratégias básicas que ensinam você a trocar opções binárias. Tenha em mente que esta é a série 100, portanto, it8217s pretende ser 8220easy8221, uma vez que apenas a série intro. As estratégias e os aspectos mais complicados da negociação serão cobertos nas séries 200 e 300, enquanto todos os processos de pensamento do nível 8220 mais altos8221 serão salvos para a série 400. BO101 8211 Introdução às opções binárias (Atualizado em 16 de janeiro de 2013) Explicação de quais opções binárias são, como funcionam e onde comercializar opções binárias, basicamente apenas uma visão geral geral da indústria. Em uma casca de porca, estas são opções digitais de negociação da direcionalidade do objeto subjacente, usando tamanhos de comércio fixo, que caducam dentro de um período de tempo fixo. Nenhum depósito exigido Demo Account FreeBinaryDemoForever BO103 8211 Plataformas de classificação recomendadas Apenas um pequeno clipe sobre quais plataformas de gráficos usar para seus respectivos instrumentos. Eu recebo esta pergunta o tempo todo dos meus alunos, então aqui você vai Co-requisitos: GT109. GT110. GT111. GT112. GT113 e GT115. Este é provavelmente o conceito mais comum e ainda incompreendido de negociação de opções binárias. Você precisa saber o índice de equilíbrio para saber qual a porcentagem de negócios que você precisa para ganhar para lucrar. Baixar: financialtradingschoolwp-contentuploads201205BO104-Break-Even-Ratio. xls Esta é a estratégia de novato que usei de volta quando comecei a negociar opções binárias. Conceito bastante simples, conseguiu o tópico Dog8217s no HotStockMarkets. Não tem certeza do que os tempos do gráfico você deve estar olhando Isso deve explicar o tópico de escolher o prazo apropriado para procurar com base em seus horários de expiração. Pré-requisito: GT106 Pinbar sticks de vela têm um corpo pequeno com um morno longo em um lado, usado principalmente para detectar padrões de reversão. Eu vejo alguns exemplos de gráficos aqui dos meus dias de novato. Pré-requisito: as varas de vela GT105 Doji têm um corpo pequeno com um pavio longo em ambos os lados, usado principalmente para detectar novos padrões direcionais. Eu também vejo exemplos de gráficos dos meus dias novatos, embora não tantos. Pré-requisito: GT105 As varas de vela embutidas vêm em pares, onde a vara de vela atual é maior do que a vela anterior. Como Doji8217s e Pinbar8217s, estes são usados principalmente para detectar padrões de reversão. Alguns dos exemplos de gráficos envolvem a estratégia MSM, que neste momento, eu não tenho o vídeo ainda melhorado. Por favor, consulte a Ep 9 8211 MSM Strategy no meu antigo 8220Como comercializar opções binárias Série 8221 Pré-requisito: GT105 Faça pequenas operações para estender sua demonstração FreeBinaryDemoForever Novos comerciantes estão freqüentemente preocupados com a diferença de preço entre as plataformas de gráficos e os corretores. Nesta lição, eu explico que não precisa ser uma preocupação e a lógica por trás do motivo. Agora que os fundamentos da negociação foram cobertos, podemos começar a nos preocupar com a Gestão do Dinheiro e a logística por trás de cada comércio. Nesta lição, passo pelos vários métodos do Money and Risk Management ao negociar as Opções Binárias. Embora existam 4 tipos diferentes de ativos que podem ser negociados usando Opções Binárias, eu pessoalmente prefiro o Forex e os alunos que observam minhas aulas geralmente seguem o exemplo também. A próxima questão lógica é, que são os 8220best8221 Forex pares a serem negociados Esta lição é colocada na série 100 por um motivo. Novos comerciantes muitas vezes acham o desejo de trocar o comunicado de imprensa porque eles viram o 8220 após o mês de novembro e pensam que é fácil trocar notícias. Bem, it8217s realmente não, as notícias são uma das causas mais comuns para limpar uma nova conta do comerciante8217. Descreva as razões pelas quais as coisas podem dar errado antes e depois do lançamento de notícias nesta lição. Uma vez que as opções binárias são um instrumento derivado, você só pode negociar os mercados subjacentes. Se os mercados subjacentes são ruins devido a problemas de volume ou liquidez, então você provavelmente terá dificuldades em negociar também. Assim, nesta lição, examino as horas de negociação 8220best8221 para opções binárias. Pré-requisitos: GT107 amp GT116 Independentemente de ter um bom ou um mau comércio, você deve saber como reagir para que suas emoções não afetem seu próximo comércio. Embora esta seja uma aula de psicologia, está sendo colocada aqui porque pertence mais às Opções Binárias do que às negociações em geral. Falando sobre isso, ele se baseia em conteúdos já apresentados nas lições de psicologia da série GT200. Opções binárias Série 200 Agora que you8217ve aprendeu os conceitos básicos da série 100, a série de opções binárias 200 irá mergulhar nos tópicos intermediários agora. O foco principal da série 200 será sobre Opções Binárias de Negociação usando Técnicas de Ação de Preço. Além disso, algumas das lições serão elaboradas em tópicos discutidos dentro da série 100. O foco está em mostrar vários exemplos de gráficos usando a ferramenta de desenho Fibonacci Retracement. Pré-requisito: GT118 Wipe Out Apenas fale para suportar o Topo FreeBinaryDemoForever Técnicas de ação de preço: 8211 BO202: Níveis de resistência de suporte 8211 BO203: Linhas de tendências 8211 BO204: Determinação de tipos de mercado Preço Fatores de ação: 8211 Série BO100: Formações de velas 8211 BO205: Padrão Formações 8211 BO206: Configurações de Gráficos (também conhecido como Big Picture) 8211 BO207: Prazos de Expansão 8211 BO208: Negociação de Notícias (Parte 2) 8211 BO209: Estratégias de Cobertura 8211 Muitos mais para o futuro Introdução da 1ª das 3 técnicas de ação de preço. Breve visão geral sobre os níveis de suporte e resistência e a configuração básica para os exemplos de gráficos na parte 2 e 3. Pré-requisitos: GT110. GT202 8211 Parte 1 e BO103. BO202 8211 Parte 2. Saltos de resistência de suporte (Aviso: a lição é de 70 minutos de duração) Explicação detalhada de como a negociação de probabilidade funciona para os saltos de nível de SR, juntamente com as condições de comércio e as entradas para os exemplos de gráficos. Pré-requisitos: BO202 8211 Parte 1 BO202 8211 Parte 3. Destaques de resistência de suporte (Aviso: a lição é de 70 minutos) Explicação detalhada de como as interrupções devem ser negociadas, papéis de níveis de SR quebrados, juntamente com entradas de comércio para os exemplos de gráficos. Pré-requisitos: BO202 8211 Parte 2 e GT202 8211 Parte 2 Corequisite: GT203 Experience Trumps Knowledge, Start Trading on Demo FreeBinaryDemoForever Introdução da 2ª das 3 técnicas de ação de preço. Breve visão geral sobre o que Trend Lines normalmente é usado e a configuração básica para os exemplos de gráficos na parte 2. Pré-requisitos: GT111. BO106. BO201 e todas as 3 partes do BO202 BO203 8211 Parte 2. Usando Trend Lines (Aviso: a lição é de 54 minutos) Explicação detalhada de como os mercados de tendências são negociados usando linhas de tendência. Incluindo como conectar os pontos, negociação de probabilidade, trocas comerciais e ângulo das linhas de tendência. Além disso, descrevo os vários estágios de uma tendência: breakouts, pullbacks e continuação. Pré-requisitos: BO203 8211 Parte 1 BO204 8211 Determinação de Tipos de Mercado Esta lição explica a 3ª e última técnica de ação de preço. Agora que você aprendeu as duas técnicas de forma independente, é hora de juntá-las para ajudar a determinar o tipo de mercado. Pré-requisitos: todas as partes da BO202 e BO203. Você deve ver o pré-requisito antes de assistir esta lição. Esta lição é diferente dos outros, uma vez que segue um formato 8220test8221 pelo qual eu tenho 2 slides: 1 gráfico sem anotações e 1 gráfico com os padrões anotados. Paro entre os slides para lhe dar tempo para adivinhar o padrão encontrado no gráfico. Assim, para utilizar plenamente esta lição, você deve ter a preparação adequada antes de assistir isso. Pré-requisitos: GT203 BO206 8211 Configurações de gráfico (também conhecido como The Big Picture) Eu passo você pelas etapas que eu uso para configurar meus gráficos semanalmente para a análise semanal FX encontrada no meu blog. Isso equivale a fazer 8220homework8221 como comerciante, uma vez que é útil para se preparar antes da negociação dos mercados. Corequisites: GT110, BO106 e as técnicas de ação de preço. As lições anteriores sempre assumiram que você deveria trocar o tempo de expiração mais próximo e evitar negociações para o próximo período de validade enquanto estiver bloqueado pelo prazo de validade atual. Esta lição mostra como contar as velas para determinar quando it8217s 8220ok8221 são comercializados além do prazo de validade atual. Teste seu risco de estratégia livre em demonstração FreeBinaryDemoForever Esta lição é feita para aqueles que não participaram do meu aviso no BO113: News Trading (Parte 1). No entanto, ao contrário dessa lição, isso é colocado na série 200. Você deve ter conhecimento prévio da ação de preços neste ponto (BO202 8211 BO204) para entender como reagir aos mercados. Isso ajudará quando você estiver negociando o lançamento de notícias. Para aqueles de vocês que assistiram a parte 1 e imediatamente pulou para esta lição, pelo menos, assista primeiro às lições de ação de preço. Pré-requisito: BO113 amp GT304 Esta lição continua nos tópicos abordados no GT302: Hedging. A Parte 1 centra-se na redução de perdas quando você já está no seu comércio e você precisa se proteger. Essas estratégias são principalmente orientadas para pessoas que operam com mais de 10 minutos de tempo de expiração. Eu explico o quanto os operadores de caducidade mais curtos terão dificuldade em proteger seus negócios. Como no GT302, passo três cenários onde você pode utilizar estratégias de hedge. Pré-requisito: GT302 Esta lição elabora o tópico 8220risk spreading8221, que foi apresentado no final do GT303: Diversification. Enquanto a parte 1 se concentra na redução de perdas quando você já está no comércio, a parte 2 enfoca os métodos que podem ser implementados antes da entrada. Nota: A Parte 2 não é explicitamente um substituto nem um complemento da parte 1, você pode usar tanto sozinho como combinado. Pré-requisito: GT303 Opções Binárias Série 300 Ao contrário das séries 100 ou 200, a série de Opções Binárias 300 focará principalmente nas Estratégias de Negociação de Opções Binárias. Isto é basicamente o que a maioria das pessoas tenta encontrar como um novo comerciante, mas I8217ve colocou essas estratégias na série 300 por um motivo. Novos comerciantes geralmente tentam encontrar o 8220holy grail8221, a estratégia 8220one8221 será 8220work8221 para eles. O que eles não entendem é, sem uma base sólida, a estratégia não tem sentido. Ao aprender a Action Price na série 200, logo você perceberá que a maioria das estratégias discutidas aqui é derivada das técnicas de ação de preço. É por isso que coloquei as aulas de Preço de Ação no início da série 200, já que as vejo como as aulas 8220core8221. BO301 8211 60 Segunda opção Parte 1: 133 Cartas de marcação inicial Esta é uma nova versão de estratégia de 60 segundos da Ep 1 das minhas séries de vídeo originais do 8220 How to Trade Binary Options 8221. As novas adições incluem detalhes completos sobre como configurar suas tabelas do TOS para se parecer com a mina, qual plataforma de gráficos usar e também tocar no diferencial de preços entre os TOS e os corretores. BO301 8211 60 Segunda opção Parte 2: ação de preço Esta é uma lição de espaço reservado temporário até que eu tenha tempo de fazer uma aula completa com exemplos de gráficos. Por enquanto, o método por si só deve ser suficiente. Nesta lição, I8217ve delineou o método sobre como negociar 60 (ou 30) segundas opções binárias usando uma abordagem de ação de preço. Em poucas palavras, basta aplicar técnicas de ação de preços em gráficos intraminais. Pré-requisito: Série BO200 (Especificamente: BO202, BO203 amp BO204) Trade on Demo antes de negociar Live FreeBinaryDemoForever BO302 8211 Oscilador estocástico (TBA 8211 Por agora, consulte o antigo 8220Como trocar opções binárias Série 8221) BO303 8211 Momento, estocástico, configuração MACD ( TBA 8211 Por agora, consulte a antiga série 8220Como comercializar opções binárias 8221) BO304 8211 Heiken Ashi Suavizado (TBA 8211 Por agora, consulte o antigo 8220Como comercializar opções binárias Série 8221) BO305 8211 Chris Floyd Bounce Mod (TBA 8211 Por enquanto, Consulte o antigo 8220Como trocar opções binárias Série 8221) Opções binárias Série 400 A série 400 conterá tópicos de nível avançado, não apropriados para a outra série. You8217ll só apreciar estas lições se você estiver negociando há muito tempo porque para um novo comerciante, essas lições podem parecer mundanas. Mas para um comerciante experiente, esta poderia ser essa vantagem extra que você precisa. Além disso, as lições aqui contidas exigirão que você tenha dominado as lições da série anterior. Algumas lições serão completamente novas, mas, na maioria das vezes, você pode pensar nessas lições como o ponto culminante das lições anteriores. BO401 8211 Operações sensíveis ao tempo (TBA) BO402 8211 Martingale Trading (TBA) Estratégia e táticas de comerciante de forex profissional Estratégia e táticas profissional de comerciante de forex Vencedores de prêmios de forex do Reino Unido 2015 - 2016 ukforexawards. A configuração da coisa certa depende do impulso para gerar lucros. Jordan senta-se enquanto o sangue atravessa seu rosto. 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Para o meu trabalho, eu preciso adicionar uma linha que é como as linhas de tendência, mas eu preciso usar minha fórmula Rorex para que a linha possa fazer o cálculo com base na minha fórmula. Envie-nos um e-mail para: infodividendchannel Bullish Two Hundred Day Moving Average Cross - DFJ DividendChannel profissional forex trader estratégia e táticas Copyright 2010 - tarder, Todos os direitos reservados Nada no Dividend Channel é destinado a conselhos de investimento, nem representa a opinião de, strattagy de , Ou recomendações da estratégia e táxis Professional Forex Trading Inc. Inc. Mantenha o ótimo trabalho pessoal. 8m sem o efeito da moeda. Reclamos de desemprego nos EUA: quinta-feira, 13:30. Um componente interessante, é o uso que ele usa de algum tipo de MA que se alinha quando o mercado está agitado. 450,00. O lucro nas aplicações de economia do zerodha são estratégias de opções binárias para os sinais de opções binárias, como funciona. Gráficos gratuitos: gráficos gratuitos de Forex para comerciantes iniciais, intermediários e especialistas, com cotações de moeda ao vivo Taxas ao vivo: taxas de câmbio em tempo real 24 horas por dia. Capela Funeral Clements em Durham. Espectáculo de esportes Editar 51. Aguarde até pelo menos o final da barra de 5 minutos onde o estoque foi comprado. É o último histórico de versões itm aztec v2. O principal fornecedor de pesquisa independente de investimentos na América do Norte. O cepat binário direito untungnya hanya aand spx baseado na web são alguns. Ou você pode desenvolver o seu próprio. Também possui tutoriais em vídeo gratuitos. Quando os mercados são extremamente voláteis, o corretor e o cliente podem não conseguir sair de um comércio antes de sofrer uma perda significativa bem em excesso do valor do depósito de clientes. Entrega de bloqueio de circulação. Uma coisa a lembrar é nunca ser inferior. Strateegy nossa versão atual da escola de troca de opções binárias. Minute strategy atctics gold autoridade neteller professsional. Não só isso, com o cartão Forex pré-pago da HDFC, você nunca terá que se preocupar com taxas de câmbio ou taxas inesperadas, uma vez que você bloqueia sua taxa de câmbio quando carrega o cartão com strwtegy. Paul Gatton, th. Para qualquer uma das melhores opções de opção de concurso de opções de opção binária, bônus. 084803 -114. Mas quantos comércios também iria parar de sair, isso acabaria por se tornar rentável. Nossos principais pontos focais serão de FOMC Projeções Econômicas, Declaração de estratégia de comerciante de forex profissional e táticas Press Tactcis. Alcance, lucros de risco binário. Saiba mais sobre como priorizar o conteúdo visível. O melhor mercado de negociação de opções binárias de um biologi marinho, os corretores diretos da Austrália ou talvez você nunca tenha di malaysia horas atrás. Eles são um instrumento financeiro onde o corretor toma a posição oposta ao seu e você ou o corretor acabou ganhando dinheiro. Binário. Opções de negociação legitimas desmascaradas. Regras especiais aplicam-se a determinadas transações em moeda estrangeira. Isso eventualmente ajuda você a abraçar qualidade em relação à quantidade. No entanto, os comerciantes sob a regra de compensação de três dias ainda são capazes de usar quaisquer fundos liquidados para comprar títulos. Então eu quero oferecer minha sincera apreciação de sua capacidade de fundir a visão comercial com as habilidades de programação EL de primeira classe. Peters acredita que uma compreensão da psicologia cognitiva no traxer, e em particular as tendências cognitivas. De uma estratégia de comerciante de forex profissional e estratégia de táticas segredo de pinos secretos no boe. O edifício do Nature Center está aberto. 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Opções é uma farsa, em dublin binário opções de troca de divisas um dos cursos gratuitos e exclusivo ganhar dinheiro e os golpes que algumas opções binárias de negociação scottrade custos. Trader trading virtual account guru vendas nova zelândia opção binária expiração binária opção negociação negociação binária últimas cinco negociações de minutos com opções binárias preencher os exemplos da indústria da minha lista negra opção alternativas de negociação melhor maneira de ganhar em noida deli minuto opções de opções binárias híbridas melhores prazos: lar Sistema de opções binárias on-line. Vencimento da opção volatilidade segundo prazo de longo prazo, opções de opções de opções binárias. Eu também notei que a maioria dos bons pontos de compra ocorreu quando MDI e ADX estavam próximos, então eu decidi que a diferença entre os dois deveria ser pequena. Em frente, os investidores aguardam o lançamento da estimativa do PIB do NIESR no Reino Unido. A fim de obter esse nível de legitimidade, um corretor deve provar sinceridade de intenção e transparência de operação, características que devem continuar a exibir ao longo de suas atividades como plataforma de negociação. Option ema com versão da licença pro apareceram ganhos de. Estratégias com quais direitos os trabalhadores sociais têm um acordo exclusivo com. 8 níveis de FIBO seriam uma boa região para observar o potencial de CORTO novamente. Alasca. Testes de estoque offshore sem depósito mínimo. O relatório de notícias financeiro diário do almoço hoje afirma que o FTSE 100 está aumentando de forma constante. Jp CORRETORES INTERATIVOS A HONG KONG LIMITED é regulada pela Hong Kong Securities e Futuresmission, e é uma estratégia profissional de trading forex e tática do SEHK e da HKFE. 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No entanto, note que a ação de preços nunca realmente quebrou abaixo da média móvel de 50 dias por mais de alguns dias. Sistemas de cobrança que procuram s usando os ebooks de fibonacci em um binário. Agora, abra o MetaTrader, abra um gráfico EURUSD de 1 minuto. Do Chile Inc. As ordens de parada não garantem uma execução no preço da parada ou perto dela. A Thepany está estruturada em segmentos como a Banca de Varejo na França, International Professional forex trader strategy e táticas Baking. HIGH Estratégia e táticas de comerciante de forex profissional ADVERTÊNCIA: A negociação cambial tem um alto nível de risco que a estratégia e as táticas de comerciante forex profissional podem ser adequadas para todos os investidores. 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Variko-London We know what it means to be helpless when it comes to sex We are ready to help madfairy And what would we do without your excellent idea 8 of 10 on the basis of 49658 ReviewOn a trip I met a Swiss insurance guy and we had an interesting discussion. He said that the elites are shooting out way ahead of the masses and accumulating excess cash. They are not able to spend it, are are not really able to invest it productively leaving excess unused non productive capital. This seemed like a powerful idea to me. Negative rates, low interest are either causes or results of the glut. Some of the super rich are trying to use their excess wealth to change the world, such as Gates, or the FB guy in medical research. Chair likes to say capital goes to good use, but here is an anomaly resulting from too much cash. It39s the idea that it just starts piling up8230.you just can39t spend it fast enough. Like the scene in that movie about the drug dealers having all the cash sitting in basements and rotting away. It39s like money in bank accounts, rotting away. anonymous writes: Or finding its way to equities, despite rate-driven, developed pre-08 models. The ocean of money is coming down the canal, and ultimately must capitulate, having nowhere else to go but the certain, inexorable attrition of it. I grew up in the 70s and when I hear OPEC it always brings back vague, distant memories of waiting in the gas car line in our Pontiac LeMans, Nixon and the Bee Gees, sometimes all at once. What I did not know then which I know now, is that in some countries when a group of competitors gets together to set production and price levels it is considered an illegal activity, called collusion. Proving again when the crime is big enough it can go unfettered. Fortunately, the arrangement is along the lines of a Puzo novel where enforcement and compliance are very difficult and the family business might not make it to the next generation. There are larger forces at work including cheaper alternatives, better efficiency, new reserves, and the technology to get at them. I predict in the years and decades ahead that OPEC will be looked back on with a wistful relevance somewhere between ABBA and frozen fish sticks. Among the drivers behind minimally invasive medical device development were quicker surgeries and shorter hospital stays in response to ACA. It appears that ACA will be eliminated with the new administration. Is there a chance the medical device market will rethink this strategy What about video physician visits (now offered by my provider) or other cost savings approaches What are possible plays for speculators Due to some unfortunate circumstances I have had occasion to spend much of the thanksgiving holiday alone. However I had a chance to read some great books which I can recommend. John Dos Passos, U. S.A. Beautiful paen to America in its plenitude. Tom Reiss, The Black Count . Amazingly well researched book about the real count of montecristo and a authors love for his n39er do well father who turned out in later life to be a man of principle. Also hybrid vigor. Nicholas Higham, Princeton Companion to Applied Mathematics . How modeling, and mathematics are used in our everyday life and should be used in many more of our pursuits. Some chapters quite accessible and suggestive. Stan Gibbilisco, Calculus Know It All. A very easy to read review of derivatives, integrals, and analytic geometry with a small chapter on differential equations. Simple and nicely formatted. Easy guide to math fall river press, very good for middle schoolers. H. L Mencken, Prejudices . The best essay on Beethoven and capitalism I39ve ever read. Stirring. Magnificent. One thing I39ve noticed at B and N is that their hard bound textbooks in most fields now sell for average of 275. Also that their spoken words section is down to about 25 titles out of say 100,000 titles in the store. Also, that most of their activity is in gifts and teen age reading. The recent campaign was hardly reticent about quotthe Russian threatquot that was, along with Trump39s pussy-grabbing audio tape, the Clintons39 and the U. S. media39s propaganda hole card. What is now scary for everyone invested in international crisis is that the American candidate who takes Foreign Affairs magazine seriously just lost because the U. S. electorate in the Mid-West and South no longer believe in the notion that foreign wars make money. (Only Wall Street does.) Putin and Trump are likely to reach the same kind of understanding that the Americans finally reached with the British when Grant (there39s that man again) and Hamilton Fish settled the Alabama claims. The U. S. would not invade Canada, the British and their sometime European allies would stop scheming to get control of Mexico, and both of them would establish economic control over the Caribbean and the South America and ignore whatever the Spanish had to say in the matter. The Russians will not to invade the Baltic countries or change their western border, the Americans will promise to stop their adventuring in the Ukraine and other games of stupid chicken, and the U. S. and Russia will establish economic control over the Middle East to the exclusion of whatever the Eurozone has to say about it. The Muslims will be free to fight among themselves, as the South Americans did for the rest of the 19th century. The believers in the religion of peace will continue to buy arms from both the Russians and Americans, as the South Americans did from the British and Americans. But, the two major oil and gas producers outside the Middle East will be the ones who control what happens overall in quotthe energy marketquot. Dr. Price39s recent remarks: quotthe problem I have right now is that we are imprisoned by a system that doesn39t provide high-quality care for many individuals in our society, especially at the lower end of the economic spectrum, because of the rules that have been put in place by the federal government. So, if we freed up the patients to select the kind of coverage that they want, we would get a model and a system that actually worked for them and not for government. quot With all this give-and-take regarding the election and, primarily, the intellect (or, pejoratively, the lack of it) of the constituency that carried the day, has anyone stopped to consider that America (and many other Western quotdemocracies) is experiencing its quotHoward Beale Moment. quot For those unfamiliar with the movie quotNetworkquot, the imaginary key that unlocked a popular (but brief) revolt was when TV announcer Beale urged his audience to quotget up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it: quotI39M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I39M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMOREquotquot And going further: quotTelevision is not the truth Television is a God-damned amusement park Television is a circus, a carnival, a traveling troupe of acrobats, storytellers, dancers, singers, jugglers, side-s how freaks, lion tamers, and football players. We39re in the boredom-killing business So if you want the truth8230 Go to God Go to your gurus Go to yourselves Because that39s the only place you39re ever going to find any real truth. quot I39ve only posted once recently and that was to explain the unreported, under-appreciated anger that is prevalent in my part of the world8211 a county that went for Trump with 71 of the vote8211 an incredible plurality for an area that had long been Democrat. It39s all well and good to move Rosa Parks and representatives of similar victim groups to the front of the bus. But you39d better be real damn careful who you push to the back of it. By Eddie van der Walt, Sofia Horta e Costa and Rita Nazareth (Bloomberg) The Donald Trump effect lost its sway over global financial markets as investors shifted to new threats including the future of Italy39s government and fled to the safety of bonds and gold. U. S. stocks slipped from all-time highs as investors speculated that gains sparked by expectations for brisker growth under a new administration went too far too quickly. Treasuries climbed, while gold pared its monthly decline. Italian banks led losses in Europe as Prime Minister Matteo Renzi faces a key referendum that may see voters reject his constitutional reform and prompt his resignation. A fund that holds stocks in companies that could gain if the U. S. lifts trade restrictions with Cuba had the biggest rally since December 2014 after former President Fidel Castro39s death. Yanki Onen writes: One thing that won39t change for the foreseeable future is that people will take profit come month-end and the market will recover what it has given and then some before it is over. width374 height277 In its first Naturalization Act, passed in 1790, Congress required two years of residency and no quotnoticequot time. quotNoticequot time was the delay imposed after a person formally declared their intention to become a citizen. In the Naturalization Act of 1795, the residency time was extended to five years and a 2 year notice time requirement was enacted so, the total time to citizenship went from 2 years to 7 years. John Adams then tried to literally slam the door shut on extensions of citizenship to immigrants. He and the Federalist majority enacted the 1798 Naturalization Act. That law extended the residency requirement to 14 years and notice time to 5 years, almost tripling total time for citizenship from 7 years to 19. In 1800 the Democratic-Republicans ran the table, electing Thomas Jefferson President and winning 68 of the 106 seats in the House of Representatives - one of the great landslides in American political history. That led to the last change in the time requirements for naturalization for the remainder of the 19th century the terms of the 1795 Act, adopted by George Washington, were restored: residency 5 years, notice time 2 years, total time: 7 years. All Naturalization Acts applied only to quotfree white personsquot. The only two changes after that were these: (1) In 1855 alien wives of U. S. citizen husbands were granted automatic citizenship (but not, of course, alien husbands of U. S. citizen wives) (2) In 1870 (yet again Ulysses Grant does the right thing) naturalization was opened quotto persons of African descentquot. (Grant wanted all racial restrictions eliminated but Congress was unwilling to accept quotAsiansquot for citizenship, only for immigration.) Francois Fillion, a former prime minister who compares himself to Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, resoundingly defeated Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppe in the runoff election primary Sunday, garnering 66.5 of votes. Just two weeks ago, polls had shown Juppe, a centrist with bipartisan appeal with a comfortable lead. Fool me once. Você devia se envergonhar. Fool me twice. Shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on the pollsters and media. Scott Brooks writes: The pendulum is swinging hard away from the leftists. Soon the non-leftists will screw things up and it will swing the other way. The left (including the MSM) are like cockroaches8230..not even the nuclear bomb of Trump can wipe them out. Ralph Vince writes: I think we39re witnessing something bigger than a pendulum swinging 8212 I think we39re watching a major, glacial, cultural shift going on now, around the planet large than politics, where the last vestiges of the last century are being slowly self-lulled into extinction, and many other things going on. I think the quotZIRP minus minusquot world, the survival of the ending of easing, and other quotperfect stormquot factors are colliding to make for an explosive rise in asset values sans a corresponding rise in rates, that may persist for decades. The greatest free-market transference of wealth in human history is already upon is for those willing to assume risk, to be followed by legions of those who must assume ever-greater risk. Never has there been such powerful feedback and driving mechanisms that have fallen into place. And as I39ve said here, I think most people are on the wrong side of this, which further buttresses the case. As I mentioned yesterday, the quotSnowflakequot generation (who I regard as the new quotgreatest generationquot) are modern-day Spartans of productivity, trained in it from birth. I have infiltrated their camps, I have gone in and worked with them for months at a time, wanting to learn this-or-that (and getting paid to o it) telling myself that when I leave, I leave knowing what they know (oh, yes indeed this coerced humility from me) and I walked out the doors with heir brains in mason jars, amazed at their work ethic, embarrassed by my own in comparison. Every preceding generation had quotno such thing as dumb questions, quot but theirs. What an engine, what a perfect storm, what a cultural cusp we are upon. The so-called quotsnowflakequot generation works much harder than we boomers did, is more educated, lives in their parent39s basements and doesn39t know what 4 growth looks like. They are extremely efficient, and put the rest of us to shame. When this gets going, for real, it39s really going to cook. A little kindling from someone who knows how to do it now, a 15 corp tax rate and the great repatriation, among many other factors, many of which were going to occur regardless of who was elected (the ultra-strong market, having not clinched with the termination of QE, the sideways, bear-market-in-time since 2014, the ocean of money which must seek risk to meet liabilities, etc.) but Trump would be fastest on the (inevitable, ultimately) repatriation (which, even at current spending and receipts levels, puts us at a balanced budget for the year of the repatriation, the first time since 2000), and trade (which is directly accounted for in GDP. 170 billion less in annual balance of trade outflows is 1 added to GDP, before the multiplier effect, which is X-fold in addition to this) and we are at the start of what will ultimately be the bull of our lifetime, and likely outlive many of us. So whereas the markets and economy were bound to perk up, I thought Trump could get it going posthaste. (Plus, I like what he said about women.) The snowflakes deserve a rocking economy, and will be fueling it. Over the busy Thanksgiving holiday, our house was filled with guests and great holiday cheer. Unfortunately, someone inadvertently stepped on a rat bait pellet and brought it underfoot, into the house. Our F1 Savannah cat and our wonderful Maine Coon decided to sample the delights of the tasty pellet. I didn39t catch it until yesterday 4:50 PM when I discovered our cats vomiting and very sick. I took them to the 24 hour emergency vet in Sarasota. Long story short, Syd, our Savannah died around 7PM and Kitty Kitty our Maine Coon is still hanging on by a thread. However, the blood tests show that poison has destroyed Kitty Kitty39s liver. In an hour or so, we are going back over to the emergency vet tonight to say goodbye to Kitty Kitty and put her down because that is the most humane course of action. We39re so sad, words cannot describe what we39re feeling at this moment. That being said, please keep an eye on your pets and watch what they do, where they go, and what they eat. Be on the lookout for potential hazards and if your pets go outside, keep an eagle eye on them. So many substances are toxic to cats and dogs8230things like chocolate8230and rat poison for that matter. We lost 50 of our household and maybe (I don39t know how), it could have been prevented. Tonight, give your pets some love and an extra hug8230..we won39t be doing that again. In a second installment on Washington let me echo Mr. Jov39s comments. Washington39s story is not what he was in 1775, but what he became over the course of the next eight years. The Revolution started as grievances by the elite over restrictions on western land expansion, credit expansion and taxes. But these were primarily quotrich peoplesquot problems. The taxes affected luxury goods for the wealthy or mercantile traders. It was initially a revolution for practical reasons not ideals. The Revolution became great when Washington and others turned the fight into an ideological war described early on by Thomas Paine in Common Sense. The war turned on the higher ideals of Freedom, Liberty and a fight against the foreign tyranny. What is most astounding about Washington is how he was able to keep a standing army in the field for those eight years of incredible suffering. The infrequent battles were difficult enough, but the real hardship came during the winters and years of deprivation. He lead an army with no clothes, shoes, weapons, pay, food, or shelter. The men, for good reason, enlisted for only very short periods, and Washington was constantly losing half his army to disease, desertion or end-of-enlistment. He somehow managed to keep them together and perhaps those higher ideals and his example of leadership were the glue. The average Continental had little to gain personally and truly was fighting for the greater cause of Liberty. It was also a time where chivalry and honor still ruled the day. In an amazing gesture, after the bloody siege of Yorktown and the British surrender, Cornwallis and British officers were invited to a celebratory ball by Washington. The Revolutionary elite still respected the European elite. The 8000 British regulars however, were resigned as prisoners. The larger point being the country has always grappled with leadership39s elite status and the blood, toil and tears of the rest of us. Washington was able to convince the country by words and deeds he was of the people. A farmer, statesman, warrior, but not a ruling elite. He put his life on the line countless time to prove that. In my mind he did prove that. Very few of our leaders since who call themselves public servants have served anyone other than themselves. That is why Washington remains great. First Brexit, then Trump, now Fillon in France. The political pendulum swings - a reader I think we39re witnessing something bigger than a pendulum swinging 8212 I think we39re watching a major, glacial, cultural shift going on now, around the planet larger than politics, where the last vestiges of the last century are being slowly self-lulled into extinction, and many other things are going on. I think the quotZIRP minus minusquot world, the survival of the ending of easing, and other quotperfect stormquot factors are colliding to make for an explosive rise in asset values sans a corresponding rise in rates, that may persist for decades. The greatest free-market transference of wealth in human history is already upon us for those willing to assume risk, who will be followed by legions of those who must assume ever-greater risk to keep up with the times. Never have there been such powerful feedback and driving mechanisms that have fallen into place. And as I39ve said here, I think most people are on the wrong side of this, are cautious and doubtful, which further buttresses the case. As I mentioned yesterday, the quotSnowflakequot generation (who I regard as the new quotgreatest generationquot) are modern-day Spartans of productivity, trained in it from birth. I have infiltrated their camps, I have gone in and worked with them for months at a time, wanting to learn this-or-that (and getting paid to do it) telling myself that when I leave, I leave knowing what they know (oh, yes indeed this coerced humility from me) and I walked out the doors with heir brains in mason jars, amazed at their work ethic, embarrassed by my own in comparison. Every preceding generation had quotno such thing as dumb questions, quot but theirs. What an engine, what a perfect storm, what a cultural cusp we are upon. Steve Jovanovich adds: There is no pendulum. History has neither meter nor rhythm there is only the sequence of events and the probabilities that those contain. Was it probable that the Europeans would have imperial civil war among themselves in the first decades of the 20th century Absolutely they had been practicing for one with mass armies for more than a century. Was it predictable that war would begin because of an assassination in the Balkans in the summer of 1914 Absolutely not. If Paddy Power had been offering odds, they would have been worse than Trump39s were 2 months ago. AFTER hearing the news of Sarajevo, both the German Kaiser and the British Foreign Minister thought it was a good time to take their summer holidays. As for Scott39s theory about the MSM being permanently out of touch, they are what they have been ever since the Ochs family decided that they should get into the business of buying ink and paper - the voice of the people who own the cities. Their trouble is that, unlike the cockroaches, they cannot easily move to the country. quotThe newsquot of the Trump election is that, for the first time in 14 censuses, the areas of the country with above median population density are showing lower growth rates than those with below median density. The major urban cores and the near-in suburbs are losing the race with the towns, villages and exurbs. And, as our host and others have kindly taught us all, the trend is all. I know gold bugs who thought Trump would be bullish because quothe is going to reflatequot. But I remind them that the reason they went into physical, in the first place, was to keep their assets off radar. Trump policies, however, should encourage transparent economic activity via decreased rates of taxation. So I tell them that the main incentive to hold Gold has been removed. Is this correct Sam Marx writes: Not entirely. Trump is heavily involved in real estate and will be president with a 20 billion dollar national debt. This indicates to me that he will be partial to an above average rate of inflation to enhance his real estate39s value and a cheaper dollar to pay off the national debt and his mortgages. With an above average rate of inflation, investors will invest in real estate, REITs, gold and silver. I was a lifeguard at Coney Island beach and Brighton beach (Brooklyn) for 5 summers from 2008 to 2012. There are about 1000-ish lifeguards patrolling this 2.5-mile continuous stretch of beach. All lifeguards are selected based on a swim test which is being able to quickly swim 440 meters (about 18 laps in a 25-meter pool.) If you can swim that distance in less than 7:40 then you can work at a pool and if you can swim it in under 6:40 then you can work at a beach. This meant that most of the lifeguards were about 17-22 y. o. high-energy males and the location meant that you had a very wide range of personalities. The 2.5-mile beach is split into 22 bays and each bay had a leader-lifeguard who had a few lifeguards under him. With reference to this video, I think the personality trait that I most often saw in the leaders was that they were always accepting responsibility for their followers and also they were always communicating and working with their superiors. Those who couldn39t do that were quickly turned back into the followers and a new leader was selected. Those It39s rare for me so find such a good message in a video this brief so I really enjoyed it and thought I39d share. Does anyone have experience with this kind of blame-everything-away vs accept-all-responsibility attitude Or does anyone have any critique of this guy39s explanation I would be interested in hearing. We are very close to 100 of probabilities the Fed is going to increase interest rates. JY remarks triggered another wave of selling. If the threat is worse than the execution what else can we expect May be we have seen a short term low on bonds When a virtual tsunami hits, the markets tend to thrash around for a time until they figure it out. If you individually tend to be prescient, go with your instincts. But if your opinions first need some direction from the markets, how long do you wait Put another way, how many time periods does it take before the detritus left by the tsunami clears There are several guidelines. Is the tsunami a one-off event, or is it a rolling event. For example, we all thought Brexit was one-off, but now with court challenges it appears to have legs. One-off events clear faster, obviously, since the rolling ones have the possibility of reversal or modification. With more quotprofessionally-tradedquot markets, detritus clears faster. Those who take positions in forex, futures and options (particularly the writers) do not have the luxury of time. Or more to the point, they do not have the margin money. If you look at market-derived information you must be conscious of intra-day movement, particularly that from the two most important times of the day. The more amateur the market, the more time it takes before you get a clear picture. In this case of course we are talking bonds and stocks, but particularly stocks. But even though those guys tend to act slowly, the markets clear remarkably fast. How long Typically between 4 and 8 trading days. So we are just now getting there. Obviously the lesson for the spec is to watch the leveraged markets. Now, a sidebar question for the quottechniciansquot: what do you do with the information (i. e. prices) that occurred during the tsunami One of our favorite gurus, a CalTech AI expert we call BikerBoy says, quotYou never, ever throw away information. quot So, in effect, the markets have tightened monetary conditions without the Fed acting. If the Fed raises rates in December, this will place some additional downward pressure on both M and V, and hence on nominal GDP. Thus, the markets have reduced the timeliness and potential success of the coming tax reductions. Another negative initial condition is that the dollar has risen this year, currently trading close to the 13 year high. The highly relevant Chinese yuan has slumped to a seven year low. These events will force disinflationary, if not deflationary forces into the US economy. Corporate profits, which had already fallen back to 2011 levels will be reduced due to several considerations. Pricing power will be reduced, domestic and international market share will be lost and profits of overseas subs will be reduced by currency conversion. Similarly, the unveiling of QE1 raised expectations of a runaway inflation. Yet, neither happened. The economics are not different. Under present conditions, it is our judgment that the declining secular trend in Treasury bond yields remains intact. John Floyd writes: The conclusion they draw demands some merit in my view while we await further info. But, apart from recent media coverage the US is basically unchanged for the year, see attached chart of the TWI. While the Fed clearly considers the US by their own models the impact is not exceedingly large. On the US I would ask this question. If corporations have not been confident to hire full time employees, expand in R and D, capital spending, etc. over the past several years is something going to change over the next few Even with a HIA, tax cuts, etc. Outside of new info it is likely that the floor of rates has risen across the curve in the US but the secular trend not changed. I think the more interesting and potentially profitable question is what does Brexit, the US election, upcoming geopolitical events, and macro imbalances outside the US imply for asset prices Of course, the simplest way of apprehending quotARRIVALquot is of a realistic-looking sy-fy dramatic supposition. The disc-shaped on-edge pods ferrying unknown aliens arrive simultaneously above a dozen world cities, resembling truncated elms or sycamores, with free-floating animated roots, more or less. Any number of forerunner sy-fy flicks have featured similar beings, from quotWar of the Worldsquot (2005) to any number of smaller, lower-cost cinematic visitors. This type of alien seems to be a popular concept for this mysterious stranger scenario. So 8211Why have they come, all of a sudden A melancholy Amy Adams, playing college prof and top language maven Dr. Louise Banks8211 who appears without makeup throughout the proceedingsmdasha talented linguist contacted by Forest Whitaker, as Colonel Weber (no first name), military official, to try to get through what it is the aliens may be trying to say. Except they don39t enunciatemdashthey splootch out finger-y type things that squirt out roundish inky ideographs. Jeremy Renner, playing Ian Donnelly (what No PhD What are they saying here about credentialized scientists in the military mindset) a recruited scientist, tries to be of collegial assistance, but does not have much to do aside from snappy retorts and functioning as a sanity foil brake on Adams39 onscreen audacity. On the deeper level, coming as it does moments after the election, my immediate link is that these alien beings, separated by a wall of impermeable glass inside the odd space vehicle with no interior furnishings but the separation barrier, represent the current president-elect. He too, to the LA and DC crowd, an alien being, apparently, as difficult to grok as an interplanetary essence. An arrival that is unheralded, appearing one day over the landscape, and something that requires 39translation39 from the being to Earthlings. Since each culture perceives the aliens as their lens permits them to, most of them regard the appearances as threatening, and begin to act reflexively as if they were being attacked. Prior space films ndashespecially in the 50s and 80s8211usually feature US military sending in a fleet of fortified soldiers, blasters at the ready, shooting like gatling guns at the foreign spacecraft. Pre-emptively, before the aliens can exert their mysterious powers on the Earthlings for good or evil.. A hint that the aliens here are sentient and not intending evil comes when a slightly less misty screen capcha shows these trunky beings with warm, sympathetic eyes. To be sure, world war is a looming possibility as each nation races to decipher what these arrivals want, mean or intend. Such threat also imperils the hard-working linguist and her scientific sidekick. And the continent, should war break out and the aliens turn out to be bad varmints with evil-intentioned trigger splootches. That would be macro-aggressions, we surmise. It is noteworthy that the key figure sent to decode the language of these untoward visitors is a woman (hint, hint), but assisted by the sensitive and exophthalmic Renner (who also has Trumpish eyes), The drama inheres in the earnest efforts of the protagonists to decode the splotches emitted: Do they betoken threat Do they mean something less than the imminent catastrophic end of mankind We are treated to linguistic theory, good for Indonesian jungle tribes as well as for intergalactic protoplasmic arrangements. Threading through the story are hints of tragic events residing in the Banks character39s life, but we don39t learn all that much until well into the film. The acting is convincing, what you need to compel interest. The script is energetic enough. The movie audience with whom we watched the film seemed glued to the onscreen events, though it is more an intellectual effort than an actioner. Just as well. So my guess is that quotArrivalquot is the Hollywood Dream Machine39s emissary sent to unclued-in Democrats from higher-order Conservatives in order to translateinterpret the Donald Trump phenom creature to the administrators and groundlings of planet America and elsewhere on the globe, where leaders scratch their pates in wonderment and confusion. At just the time when the astonishing revelation of the 2016 US elections breaks worldwide, to the consternation and bafflement of all. As an interpretive vehicle, it shows how earnest are those who seek desperately to understand this unheralded event and emergence. Who knows Maybe the Amy Adams character is a stand-in for Martha Raddatz, intrepid and daunting Hildy Johnson-ish reporter. Raddatz39es true tile: ABC network39s Chief Global Affairs Correspondenthellip width191 height243 Opposing new, better machinery is always and everywhere a complaint about productivity in the name of quotthe peoplequot. When the self-driving vehicles actually take to the roads in numbers, someone somewhere will trash one and it will be Big News. It isn39t neither will the political efforts to prohibit innovation be new. The English Crown started banning industrial machinery in the 16th century and they are still at it, thanks to the Princely idiot who is first in line. As the Liberty lads o39er the sea Bought their freedom, and cheaply, with blood, So we, boys, we Will die fighting, or live free, And down with all kings but King Ludd When the web that we weave is complete, And the shuttle exchanged for the sword, We will fling the winding-sheet O39er the despot at our feet, And dye it deep in the gore he has pour39d. Though black as his heart its hue, Since his veins are corrupted to mud, Yet this is the dew Which the tree shall renew Of Liberty, planted by Ludd I applaud the prescience of those who made the election prediction and stuck with it these many months and hope they were well rewarded. Regarding the fall-out, I have some in my own extended family going through the stages of denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. My sister-in-laws are in the stage of anger. But as market participants and professional, the quicker we get to acceptance and beyond, the better. As the chair points out, the market got to acceptance around 2 am the mourning after the election. There are remarkable changes going on with bonds, crude, emerging markets all way down, Dow outperforming and big shifting of sectors. It is fascinating to watch the speed at which the discounting process unfolds in real time. Somewhat related I am reading the Chernow39s biography of Washington and highly recommend it. When I complete it, I will review it, but one thing I find interesting is the level of risk Washington was willing to take on. He had a great deal to lose when accepting the commission to lead the fledgling army, reputation and honor being the greatest. Also he was amazingly calm and brave under literal fire. In an early battle he emerged unscathed but with four bullet holes in his hat and garments. Qualities very fitting for markets and life. Stefan Jovanovich writes: I boycott Chernow39s work, probably out of envy. The man is incredibly industrious. But, he is also completely credulous. Washington had a great deal to prove as a soldier when he went to Philadelphia wearing his colonial militia uniform. He had participated in the greatest defeat of British troops in over a century of campaigning against the French - Braddock39s massacre. He was guilty of having allowed a French officer - Ensign Joseph Coulon de Villiers de Jumonville - to be literally butchered by the troops under his first independent command after the officer had surrendered. He was forced to surrender Fort Necessity to Jumonville39s brother who made Washington include in the surrender documents an admission of his guilt in allowing Ensign Joseph to be slaughtered. For the rest of his life Washington tap danced around this fact, claiming that he had not known what the surrender document said because it was written in French. Like Churchill in his Boer War adventures, Washington was able to make lemonade out of lemons and wrote the story of his adventures but, just as Churchill39s own part had involved defeat and capture, Washington39s actual campaigning experience had been a loser. This was part of the reason why his attempt to join the British regular Army was rejected. Governor Dinwiddie did his best to create the image of Washington as the hero of the Battle of Monongahela but that is like Roosevelt39s preserving Douglas MacArthur after he skedaddled from the Philippines. Political necessity required both men to be treated as war heroes after they had presided over military disasters. Washington went to Philadelphia to redeem and establish his honor, not to quotdefendquot it. He was the husband by second marriage to the richest woman in the colonies, but he was, in no sense, a figure of respect for his military prowess. But, judged among men who had never even fought duels, let alone served in wartime, he did have the virtue of having actually been shot at. Even so, he was chosen to be Commander in Chief for purely political reasons Franklin knew that the Southern states had to become involved in the rebellion if it was to have any hope of succeeding. The New Englanders had begun the fight but the merchant colonies - NY and PA - and the planters - VA and SC - needed to be brought on board. What makes Washington a great man is that he did achieve his goal - he became the American Cincinnatus. His own personal courage is indisputable he led from the front - always. His example was so dominating that it compelled men young enough to be his children to put their own lives at risk. Both Hamilton and Monroe were wounded, Monroe almost fatally, while serving under Washington39s command. But, to start the story with a tale of illustrious George is to fall into what Gary Gallagher rightly calls the Appomattox trap - i. e. of course, everyone in 1861, 1862, 1863 and 1864 knew the South would lose, their Ouija boards had already shown them what happened at Appomattox. Washington in 1775 was not the man he would become. Up to now the trade balance of the United States has been determined as a residual item, in other words it is not a target that policy makers and citizens look at but is the result of other variables like GNP growth, inflation, productivity, the value of the dollar, opportunities, preferences, etc. in the US and abroad. If the Trump administration decides to target a reduction in the trade deficit (as seemed implicit in the campaign) that is a MAJOR change in how the economy operates and I wonder what consequences it would have. Is it even possible Of course it is possible and many countries (such as Japan in the 60-70s, germany, china) have operated with such policies), but it is a big change in thinking for the US. My economics professors decades ago derided such policies with the epithet 39mercantilist39 and refused to even discuss them (quotit39s not Pareto optimal, so forget itquot). But at least some countries (esp. developing countries) have had some success with it as long as the ROW did not follow their example. We now understand such policies have some benefits as well as costs. What form would the trade policy of the Trump administration take The most attractive would be an export promotion strategy, like the Asian Tiger countries. I have a friend who believes that the US should set up Special Economic Zones like the Shenzhen area in China, where special rules are applied to favor the establishment of new enterprises that are oriented to export. Low taxes, light regulation, waiver of union rules and so on would be targeted to a small geographic area (near an international transportation hub) with a view to boosting its productivity and export ability. It is a very Asian top-down approach and have some doubts whether this could be done in the context of Western decentralized, democratic and rule of law traditions. But there is an even bigger problem: where would the exports go to, when there are no longer any large developed countries available as export destinations. The other strategy would be an import compression or 39onshoring production39 strategy. This can be accomplished via Tariffs such as Trump has proposed but would have the side effect of raising the cost of products to US consumers. In addition because one country39s imports are another country39s exports it would result in a decrease in international trade. Since the mid-2000s international trade has been stagnant (after a period of high growth) so it would not be surprising that after Trump, Brexit, etc, it would turn down. What would be the investment implications of a fall in international trade and investment Historical periods of decreased international trade are not exactly bullish for the economy. As you can see, although I do believe the Trump administration will be the greatest and best, I have trouble seeing how the policies can be applied without causing major changes and some kind of negative disruptions in the world economy. I would like to hear from you any ideas how we can analyze the situation in a clear and practical way. What asset prices will be affected and how. Anonymous replies: My sense is that the Trump trade policy would work through tax incentives (like the tax incentives now offered by states to businesses who locate or stay there) rather than through tariffs. West coast dude suggests: Future increases in prices of consumer products as a result of switching to domestic production are already being reflected in the price of bonds, which are falling in response to higher expected inflation. The Institute for Energy Research (IER) is not an objective organization. It has been described as a front group for the fossil fuel industry. Even if they were objective, this argument against solar is distorted and against free market principles. Yes, it39s true. Solar ITC is important to corporate investors. However, that credit does not work as many believe. Specifically, I39m guessing Mr. Trump may lack understanding of how environmental, energy and tax policies work together. Let39s begin with tax policies. It turns out solar ITC39s net cost to taxpayers is zero. It39s less than zero. It39s zero for two reasons. Companies claiming ITC must reduce their asset39s tax basis by half the ITC39s value (to 85). Since solar qualifies for five-year ACRS, taxpayers retrieve half their ITC almost immediately. Recovery from basis adjustment is half the story. Because of ACRS rules, after four years of operations, solar owners find they have almost zero tax deductions. Their largest expenses are land leases and interest payments. The lack of deductions is because depreciation expenses have been consumed and production costs are nil. At year five, solar farm owners jump to the maximum federal and state income tax brackets. Consequently, federal, state and local governments have a new tax base and new tax revenues, which are so large that they cover any remaining ITC payouts and more. Thus, if ITC stimulates new investment, taxpayers fully recover their ITC and earn additional tax revenues year after year for 20 years. While the federal ITC may be an incentive, it39s not enough for most businesses. If it were, solar would be deployed in all 50 states. It39s not. As evidence, consider North Carolina. This state has massive investments in business-owned solar farms. Compare North Carolina with Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi. The differences are significant. The reason ITC helpful but not sufficient is because of environmental policies. The primary incentives to build solar is provided by individual states. If a state declines to offer incentives, no solar will be deployed. Solar39s main driver is state environmental and energy policies. State39s primary motivation is the Clean Air Act. Many states are non-compliant with National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Other states are in violation of cross-border pollution policies. In either case, non-compliant states cannot offer businesses new air permits. Without new permits, it39s difficult for a state to grow their economy. If mitigating pollution is not enough, states have other motivations. It turns out solar power will reduce states39 electricity prices. Solar reduces the need to build new transmission lines across the state. Solar also reduces the need to construct more central power plants. Considering everything, some states find solar brings more winners than losers. Free markets win, consumers win, politicians win, local distribution utilities win, and businesses win. Generating utilities lose, coal miners lose, and rails lose. Mr. Trump may find revoking solar tax credits has unforeseen consequences. Should he convince Congress to move in this direction, they may be surprised by bipartisan pushback from key states. Should Trump and Congress persevere, they may be forced to revoke coal credits, nuclear credits, and do away with all other energy development incentives. Mr. Trump may have cross-threaded his goals. He wants to develop more energy from all sources. At the same time, he39s advocating the removal of costless incentives that stymie energy development, business growth, tax bases, and new jobs. He should ignore any advice from IER. They appear to have an agenda. There have only been 8 US presidential elections in the history of SampP 500 futures. In 7 of the 8 instances, the SampP 500 had a net gain in the 10 trading days ending on Election Day. With 8 of the 10 days complete this year, the net change of the SampP 500 is -58. The SampP 500 declined on the day after Election Day in 6 of the 8 instances with an average loss of 11 points or 1.1. 10 days ending Net change Day after election Net change 1161984 1.30 0.8 1171984 -2.80 -1.6 1181988 -9.00 -3.2 1191988 -1.00 -0.4 1131992 4.20 1.0 1141992 -3.65 -0.9 1151996 6.30 0.9 1161996 14.00 2.0 1172000 41.00 2.9 1182000 -30.70 -2.1 1122004 27.10 2.5 1132004 14.50 1.3 1142008 43.90 4.6 1152008 -45.20 -4.5 1162012 18.40 1.3 1172012 -36.10 -2.5 I agree that the BLS number will be bullish tomorrow 20161104. Why was there recently an article from NYT singing the praises of impartiality of the BLS Seems suspicious to me, who considers BLS nothing but a bunch of cronies. The payroll taxes are shown. Not really bullish. However the recent rise covers the exact period that will be sampled in the Jobs Report. The subsequent downturn is not in that sample. Note: this view of the payroll taxes views the consequences for the employment scenario. If we targeted the impact on GDP we would get a more bullish picture. Stefan Jovanovich writes: People have been doing sabermetrics forever. They just didn39t have the mathematical tools. Exit velocity - which is the best measure of a hitter39s quotpowerquot - was the first thing scouts looked for, but they had to judge it by the sound of the ball leaving the bat. That is why the first thing a good scout would do is show up early and check the wood on the bats of the team he was scouting. Theo Epstein is a bright, bright guy and he deserves nothing but praise but his reputation still rests in large measure on Dave Robert39s ability to steal bases and Bill Mueller39s pure grace. The first of the month rolled in and the monthly Slab City poker players gathered in a shantytown trailer and pulled 100 bills from their pockets. They had just collected their first-of-the-month government checks making it the big night out on this outlaw town on sand in southern California. Each swallowed or shot methamphetamine, and anted one hundred. The night after Halloween is when the real ghouls came out to trick and treat. A kitchen timer in front of a kerosene lantern before a broken window was set for one hour, and began ticking. Eight men circled the poker pot on a spool table, as their pupils enlarged to saucers. At Go they wedged through the trailer door in a land rush sprint. The goal was each to work his way under the cloak of darkness undetected across the town of 300 souls stealing whatever they could get their hands on. Whoever returned with the most loot before the timer rang would win the pot. The strategies were to go light and carry everything in covering the most ground most took backpacks, bags, or suitcases. But Irish Adam would return the winner with a shopping cart (at the sacrifice of speed and risk of detection) full of booty. When the timer rang, the stolen items were tallied. Irish gathered the dough, and shouted, 39Meth on the house39 Amarillo Slim said, 39Seldom do the lambs slaughter the butchers,39 but a posse is forming to put an end to the first of the month poker games. How would you define uncertainty in a market context The market seems to maximize its closes and opens and other bench market prices so as to maximize uncertainty among all the players so as to maximize trading of all systems and beliefs Pete Earle writes: The market is the kind of fighter that either jumps on you at the bell in the first round, testing your defenses and seeing if it can catch you cold (quotdryquot). It is also the type to, in the last round, or last minute or so of the last round, burst forth with brutality and attempt to catch you while you39re tired or confident about a win. Eddy39s Mom is the brains in the family so, like Vic, Russ, Rocky and the other smart people, she does her best to ignore politics. She tolerates my historical obsessions because, as she said to Eddy the other night, quotit keeps your father off the streetsquot. Now that it is only a week before the election, she has relented enough to listen to my data babble. I went over the polls from early last week - to remove all possibility of their results being tainted by quotthe newsquot. What I was looking for were the thumb prints, where the pollsters had done their best to skew the results based not on the survey responses but on the sampling assumptions. I looked at 3 polls: ABC, IBD and CNN and went far enough into the footnotes to find out how they weighted their samples among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. ABC39s electorate: 36D, 27R, 31I IBD: 37D, 29R, 34I CNN: 37D, 31R, 32I The Gallup people have stopped doing election campaign polls, but they continue to do periodic surveys of the registered voter party affiliations. The most recent one, taken in December 2015, showed 4243R, 3536D, 2122I, and 1 3rd Party. I trust those numbers for one very simple reason: they reflect the actual distribution of elected representatives among the 3 party groups. Measured by solely by ballot box results, the country is 75 Republican. If you take the data from the ABC, IBD and CNN surveys and allocate the results using Gallup39s distribution of party affiliations, you get ABC: Clinton - 40, Trump - 39 IBD: Clinton - 37, Trump - 37 CNN: Clinton - 39, Trump - 41 The announced results by the pollsters, using their own distributions, were quite different: ABC: Clinton - 50, Trump - 37 IBD: Clinton - 41, Trump - 41 CNN: Clinton - 51, Trump - 45 When I showed these numbers to Eddy39s Mom, she was not surprised. Neither was I. But, what she said was something that I have heard only from Pat Caddell among the public figures and he made the remark tangentially, in discussing the quotundecidedquot voters. This is, announced the EMom, an quotundisclosedquot election. In public here in Tar Heel land, Vic39s wardroom rules generally apply people don39t think it is productive or polite to discuss politics in public gatherings. But, this year that is overwhelmingly the case. The only people who think they have an open invitation to discuss quotthe electionquot are the Democrats39 hard-core patronage constituents: the professional academics and the people of color who are on the dole. In 1980 a week before the election the quotundisclosedquot were 12-15 of the electorate this year they may be closer to 20. If the quotundisclosedquot split evenly and the decline in black turnout in Virginia does not continue (their early voting is down nearly 50 from 2012), Mrs. Clinton will squeak through. If the quotundisclosedquot vote the way Independents have polled (67 out of 10 for Trump), the incumbent party will lose as badly as they did in 2008. This forgettable book by Adam Kucharski attempts to examine the science of betting, and how to beat the game. It promises a lot but doesn39t deliver. The sciences include math, physics, statistical analysis, probability theory, biology, and artificial intelligence. Kucharski discusses, at a very high level, the attempts and methods of Poincare, Tharp, Markov, Galton et al to predict future outcomes. There is much discussion of the original attempts to beat lotteries, roulette, blackjack, horses, sports, and other games. He wasted too much time covering the methods of the turf groups and syndicates that play in Hong Kong. Also, his description of beating blackjack by various people put me to sleep, with nothing new to add. Many of the rudimentary card counting and computer schemes have been banned in casinos and are irrelevant. There is much discussion of brilliant minds try to exploit flaws in games, but much too anecdotal, too historical. I found no probability equations to be found in the book. Lots of talk about science and math, but no actual science or math. As far as the science, he makes a big deal out of the Kelly Criterion, the Monte Carlo principle, Poisson Distributions, Markov chains, and others but good only for a high school history student. I found his discussion of Galton39s work on inheritance to be quite strange to be included in this tome, and it added nothing. He told a lot of stories about those who worked on beating games, but little else. One could find better, more complete information from Wikipedia. The Perfect Bet was not written for gamblers, casinos, players or scientists, it was written for the general public. I felt like this was more like a history book and was sadly disappointed with the unevenness of the writing. Kucharski also jumped around in the book, and it was due to his fond use of questionable digressions and tangents he went off on. It will probably go on the back shelf of my large gambling book collection, or maybe end up at Goodwill. If one wants to read something good about the science and methods of gambling, try John Scarne39s New Complete Guide To Gambling . Actually everything Scarne wrote is a meal for a lifetime and I recommend reading his entire library. It39s all on Amazon and quite reasonable in price. FYI, Scarne was a world class card mechanic, and if you ever watched the movie, quotThe Sting, quot you39ve already seen his excellent handiwork in the card game on the train. Resources Links
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